Event Title
How Do Economic Conditions Affect Oregonians’ Voting Behavior?
Faculty Sponsor
Jeff Summers
Location
Jereld R. Nicholson Library
Date
5-13-2011 3:00 PM
End Date
5-13-2011 4:30 PM
Subject Area
Economics (applied)
Description
This study analyzes the effects of the unemployment rate on Oregon voting behavior for National Congressional Representatives in the elections from 1992 to 2008. Existing research has focused on national elections, making this the first analysis on a purely state level. We find that controlling for incumbency and the coattail effects of a presidential election, an increase in a congressional district’s unemployment rate leads to a statistically significant decrease in the incumbent candidate’s share of the vote. The model was used to predict the 2010 election outcomes and can be used to predict future Oregon election outcomes.
Recommended Citation
Abeln, Kyle, "How Do Economic Conditions Affect Oregonians’ Voting Behavior?" (2011). Science and Social Sciences. Event. Submission 7.
https://digitalcommons.linfield.edu/studsymp_sci/2011/all/7
How Do Economic Conditions Affect Oregonians’ Voting Behavior?
Jereld R. Nicholson Library
This study analyzes the effects of the unemployment rate on Oregon voting behavior for National Congressional Representatives in the elections from 1992 to 2008. Existing research has focused on national elections, making this the first analysis on a purely state level. We find that controlling for incumbency and the coattail effects of a presidential election, an increase in a congressional district’s unemployment rate leads to a statistically significant decrease in the incumbent candidate’s share of the vote. The model was used to predict the 2010 election outcomes and can be used to predict future Oregon election outcomes.