Location

Jereld R. Nicholson Library: Grand Avenue

Subject Area

Economics

Description

This study uses a logit model to analyze the factors affecting the probability that an NFL head coach will be fired. Our dataset is composed of fifty, randomly selected head coaches from the years 2004 to 2014. Explanatory variables included career experience, tenure, the previous year’s winning percentage, career playoff wins, whether or not the coach was in the playoffs the prior year, and race. The previous year’s winning percentage was found to significantly affect the probability a coach would be fired. The model’s correct prediction rate is 80%.

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Factors Affecting the Probability that a NFL Head Coach Will Be Fired

Jereld R. Nicholson Library: Grand Avenue

This study uses a logit model to analyze the factors affecting the probability that an NFL head coach will be fired. Our dataset is composed of fifty, randomly selected head coaches from the years 2004 to 2014. Explanatory variables included career experience, tenure, the previous year’s winning percentage, career playoff wins, whether or not the coach was in the playoffs the prior year, and race. The previous year’s winning percentage was found to significantly affect the probability a coach would be fired. The model’s correct prediction rate is 80%.

 

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