Location

Jereld R. Nicholson Library

Subject Area

Economics

Description

The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between an NFL quarterback’s Total Quarterback Rating (TQR) and his team’s prospect of winning games. We use a binary-logit model to estimate the marginal effects of TQR on the probability of winning, controlling for teams’ power rankings and home-field advantage. We find that a 5-point improvement in the TQR score would lead to a 2% increase in the probability of winning the game. Our results suggest that NFL coaches could see an increase in the probability of winning through the improvement of their quarterbacks’ performance. This model can also be used to predict the outcome of NFL games in the coming seasons.

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May 15th, 9:30 AM May 15th, 10:45 AM

Does ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating Help Explain an NFL Team’s Probability of Winning?

Jereld R. Nicholson Library

The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between an NFL quarterback’s Total Quarterback Rating (TQR) and his team’s prospect of winning games. We use a binary-logit model to estimate the marginal effects of TQR on the probability of winning, controlling for teams’ power rankings and home-field advantage. We find that a 5-point improvement in the TQR score would lead to a 2% increase in the probability of winning the game. Our results suggest that NFL coaches could see an increase in the probability of winning through the improvement of their quarterbacks’ performance. This model can also be used to predict the outcome of NFL games in the coming seasons.

 

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