Faculty Sponsor(s)
Jeff Summers
Location
Jereld R. Nicholson Library
Subject Area
Economics
Description
The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between an NFL quarterback’s Total Quarterback Rating (TQR) and his team’s prospect of winning games. We use a binary-logit model to estimate the marginal effects of TQR on the probability of winning, controlling for teams’ power rankings and home-field advantage. We find that a 5-point improvement in the TQR score would lead to a 2% increase in the probability of winning the game. Our results suggest that NFL coaches could see an increase in the probability of winning through the improvement of their quarterbacks’ performance. This model can also be used to predict the outcome of NFL games in the coming seasons.
Recommended Citation
Pei, Shuai and Waetzig, Andrew, "Does ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating Help Explain an NFL Team’s Probability of Winning?" (2015). Linfield University Student Symposium: A Celebration of Scholarship and Creative Achievement. Event. Submission 8.
https://digitalcommons.linfield.edu/symposium/2015/all/8
Does ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating Help Explain an NFL Team’s Probability of Winning?
Jereld R. Nicholson Library
The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between an NFL quarterback’s Total Quarterback Rating (TQR) and his team’s prospect of winning games. We use a binary-logit model to estimate the marginal effects of TQR on the probability of winning, controlling for teams’ power rankings and home-field advantage. We find that a 5-point improvement in the TQR score would lead to a 2% increase in the probability of winning the game. Our results suggest that NFL coaches could see an increase in the probability of winning through the improvement of their quarterbacks’ performance. This model can also be used to predict the outcome of NFL games in the coming seasons.
